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巨丰投顾:“政策红包”来袭 赛道股启动 释放何种信号?

文章来自:南北看客
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发布时间:2022-03-23 15:36:29
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观点:连续四个月PMI数据看,经济有所回升,但整体看仍属反抽,下行压力依旧较大。不过,数据回升短期对市场或有提振。此外,在基本面和流动性相对稳定的支撑下,市场整体保持向好基础。去年四季度央行降准以及调降LPR之后,开年央行下调MLF以及逆回购利率,货币宽松周期逐步开启,流动性充裕预期下,市场整体仍有提振。短期,重磅规划落地,对新能源板块带来政策利好。中兴通讯胜诉股价大涨,对板块估值提振带来刺激。赛道股有启动迹象,有助于活跃市场人气。不过,指数连续上行后迎来分化,还是要留意可能的技术性回调。

隔夜外盘上涨以及国内政策提振下,今日沪深两市双双高开,开盘后展开震荡,盘中间歇式拉升,上午收盘前一度跳水。不过午后在房地产等板块的拉升下走高,创下日内新高下也再创超跌反弹新高。盘面上,美容护理一度领涨,通信、房地产板块紧随其后,而食品饮料以及国防军工表现良好。跌幅榜上,交通运输走弱,钢铁、煤炭以及银行等走低。

上午,受到《“十四五”现代能源体系规划》落地的提振,特高压、风能、储能、光伏、核电等新能源板块23日盘中集体走高。而氢能产业发展中长期规划出台消息提振下,氢能概念股也迎来强势拉升。不仅如此,午后随着中兴通讯的复牌涨停,5G板块也一度拉升。至此,赛道板块整体走强,对成长股的提振不言而喻,也有望带动市场热情的提升。

从重磅规划落地来看,对于能源板块的支撑作用比较明显,虽然去年以来光伏以及风能等板块一路走高,但属于整体性的炒作概率较大。而去年四季度以来的调整之后,随着政策的提振,对于板块龙头股来说,是实质性的利好,也有助于板块的回升;通讯板块来说,中兴通讯的胜诉以及股价的涨停,对板块提振的同时,也有利于板块估值的提升。

因此,我们看到,无论是光伏、风能、氢能,还是5G等,在今天集中启动,相比于单一的赛道股走强,这个力度还是比较大。一方面是说明当前市场的情绪在回升,做多热情也在逐步释放;另一方面也说明市场赚钱效应开始出现,增量资金也有望开始介入。而即便接下来市场还有技术性调整,但个股的博弈行情或还将延续。

再次回到市场,午后房地产以及白酒板块也迎来拉升,对市场向好带来助攻。不过,指数并没有快速走高,而是一度冲高回落。这其中,金融等权重还是有一定的拖累。由此,我们也可以看出,尽管当前市场超跌反弹启动,但持续性仍有待观望,跷跷板效应下还应留意市场的反复,尤其是连续上行后继续谨防短期的技术性调整。

总结一下:在此前已经认为市场进入底部区域之后,我们认为市场即将迎来阶段性的底部,也是可以考虑逢低增配的时机。对于激进投资者,整体仍可考虑分批低吸和加仓。而对于稳健的投资者,建议耐心等待指数可能的再次回撤后,再做新的定夺。

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