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盛文兵:乌克兰主动表态愿意何谈 风险情绪消退

文章来自:前程旧事
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发布时间:2022-03-23 14:19:46
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3月23日,影响黄金的相关因素:

利好因素:

1、美国高通胀预期强烈,美联储虽然鹰派加息,但美国债收益率开始出现倒挂现象,暗示美国经济后市存在衰退的可能,这些提供给了黄金进一步升值的空间。

2、俄乌局势悬而未决,战事持续焦灼。双方虽已进行了四轮谈判,但结果均未达到双方预期,事态如何继续发展,存在很大的不确定性。值得一提的是:俄乌战事,一直此起彼伏的主要原因是美国所领导的北约和欧盟成员国从中作祟,搅局,才使得乌克兰一方时而服软,时而强硬。

3、俄乌战事持续近一个月,推高了全球能源粮食价格,全球通胀预期更加强烈,市场需要寻求黄金作为抗通胀的工具和手段。与此同时,全球对粮食的供应短缺问题产生恐慌,近期小麦、玉米等主要粮食价格持续上涨,将会进一步引发市场对全球粮食危机的担忧和恐慌。

4、全球新冠疫情持续不断,对经济影响非常明显,全球经济形势进一步恶化,加之俄乌冲突,更是对全球经济雪上加霜。目前来看,未来的三到五年,全球经济难有好的表现。

利空因素:

1、美国持续强硬加息,美元将保持高位强势,对黄金构成一定的压制。

2、美国和欧盟国家不会对俄罗斯实行军事方面的行动,随时俄罗斯在乌克兰军事行动的持续推进,攻克基辅只是时间问题。相信乌克兰方面也会慢慢地清醒认识到唯一和谈,接受俄罗斯提出的所有条件才是唯一出路。将近一个月的战事对双方都不是什么好事情,近期双方的谈判比前两次效果明显,不排除双方达成停火的协议。

盛文兵:乌克兰主动表态愿意何谈 风险情绪消退

总结:近期国际油价受俄乌冲突局势影响较大,昨天乌克兰总统释放出了和谈的积极信号,国际油价从113美元快速回落至106美元附近。综合分析,结合俄乌冲突和疫情的双重影响,国际油价将维持在100到120的区间震荡。在没有出现相关指引性的事件前,油价难以形成日线级别的趋势。日内原油关注下方107.2区域支撑位不破继续做多。

盛文兵:乌克兰主动表态愿意何谈 风险情绪消退海量资讯、精准解读,尽在本站财经APP
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