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【宏观】20220324摘要合集

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发布时间:2022-03-25 07:01:03
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兴业研究FICC日报20220324

全球疫情追踪

根据世界卫生组织最新实时统计数据,截至欧洲中部夏令时间03月22日17时27分,全球新冠肺炎确诊病例累计达470,839,745例,累计死亡6,092,933例。22日,全球新增新冠肺炎确诊病例1,244,012例,新增死亡病例14,865例。

3月22日0—24时,31个省和新疆生产建设兵团报告新增确诊病例2667例。其中境外输入病例76例,含21例由无症状感染者转为确诊病例;本土病例2591例,含94例由无症状感染者转为确诊病例。无新增死亡病例。新增疑似病例3例,均为境外输入病例。

非美之殇—美元流动性危机的历史与未来

2022年2月俄乌战争爆发、西方对俄罗斯采取严厉金融制裁;美联储3月拉开持续加息序幕,全球美元流动性开始收紧。

美元流动性冲击甚至危机通常有五种诱因——美联储快速大幅紧缩、风险事件冲击、美国财政监管等政策冲击、大宗商品冲击以及非美货币错配下经受外部冲击。结局通常伴随资金回流美国,美元指数走强,非美经济体股债汇三杀,甚至发生债务危机。

本文回顾了1980年以来全球较为重要的美元流动性危机,并详细复盘其起因及结果。

展望后市,美联储将加速紧缩——加息缩表并行,俄乌形势亦未明朗。滞胀风险增加,股债均承压,大宗商品剧烈波动,市场流动性如履薄冰。倘若民主党再推动BBB法案,将进一步吸收美元流动性。此外,美国经济在明后年陷入衰退的风险加大。一旦美国衰退,随之而来的便是连锁的需求坍塌,继而是大宗商品短期暴跌,新兴经济体危机接踵而至。更大的流动性危机正在酝酿。

我国与海外金融市场的交互程度已远超过去,尽管当前仍有前两年积累的境内美元蓄水池作为缓冲,但仍需未雨绸缪。

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