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【广发•早间速递】解密土地出让金与土地财政收入关系

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发布时间:2022-03-25 07:00:58
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固收 | 解密土地出让金与土地财政收入关系

煤炭 | 煤炭行业深度报告:详解煤价、油价、国际煤炭供需,重申看好煤炭

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【广发•早间速递】解密土地出让金与土地财政收入关系

解密土地出让金与土地财政收入关系

中指院“土地出让金”与官方披露的“政府性基金收入-国有土地使用权出让收入”主要有两点差别。第一,从签约到入库,存在1个月至1年的时间滞后,各地执行政策不统一。

第二,土地完成招拍挂后,出让金需要经过若干加减项,再计入国有土地使用权出让收入。具体来看,当一块土地完成招拍挂,且出让金缴齐后,首先会划转“国有土地收益基金”和“农业土地开发资金”,同时按规定计提“教育资金”、“农田水利建设资金”,剩余部分计入“土地出让价款收入”科目。而“土地出让价款收入”仅是“国有土地使用权出让收入”的一部分。在扣减“新增建设用地土地有偿使用费”,再加上“补缴的土地价款”、“划拨土地收入”、“其他土地出让收入”之后得到“国有土地使用权出让收入”。

风险提示:中指院统计数据存在地块遗漏。核心假设风险。

报告作者:刘郁S0260520010001;黄晓曦S0260520080006

【广发•早间速递】解密土地出让金与土地财政收入关系

煤炭行业深度报告:详解煤价、油价、国际煤炭供需,重申看好煤炭

煤油大宗商品价格关系复盘。过去40多年,国际煤价和国际油价表现高度相关,油价弹性高于煤价,国内煤价弹性较低,目前油煤比处于历史低位。近两年国外煤价表现领先,涨幅明显大于油价及其他大宗商品,主要由于煤炭供需紧张,油价带动只是因素之一。

22年及中长期全球煤炭供需或持续偏紧。近两年世界范围内经济快速恢复,叠加可再生能源出力有限、天然气价暴涨,全球煤炭需求增长超预期。未来五年需求增长主要来自亚太,而欧美去煤化预期放缓也成为边际增长因素。供给端由于出口预期持续下降,资本开支下降限制中长期产能扩张,供需面有望维持平衡偏紧。

风险提示:下游需求增速低预期,政策压力下煤价超预期下跌等。

报告作者:安鹏S0260512030008;宋炜S0260518050002

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